0 9293 9301 9307 9311 9317 9319 9323 9329 9331 9337 9343 9347 9349 9353 9359 9361 9367 9371 9373 9377 9379 9383 9385 9387 9388 9389 9391 9392 9393 9395 9397 9401 9403 9407 9409 9413 9419 9421 9427 9431 9433 9437 9443 9449 9451 9457 9461 9463 9469 9473 9479 9487 11751 seize, take 曾用名 欧盟的高科技也是非常先进的，全世界都非常乐意购买它， 副驾驶 The financial market turmoil in 2007 and 2008 has led to the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression and threatens to have large repercussions on the real economy. The bursting of the housing bubble forced banks to write down several hundred billion dollars in bad loans caused by mortgage delinquencies. At the same time, the stock market capitalization of the major banks declined by more than twice as much. While the overall mortgage losses are large on an absolute scale, they are still relatively modest compared to the $8 trillion of U.S. stock market wealth lost between October 2007, when the stock market reached an all-time high, and October 2008. This paper attempts to explain the economic mechanisms that caused losses in the mortgage market to amplify into such large dislocations and turmoil in the financial markets, and describes common economic threads that explain the plethora of market declines, liquidity dry-ups, defaults, and bailouts that occurred after the crisis broke in summer 2007. To understand these threads, it is useful to recall some key factors leading up to the housing bubble. The U.S. economy was experiencing a low interest rate environment, both because of large capital inflows from abroad, especially from Asian countries, and because the Federal Reserve had adopted a lax interest rate policy. Asian countries bought U.S. securities both to peg the exchange rates at an export-friendly level and to hedge against a depreciation of their own currencies against the dollar, a lesson learned from the Southeast Asian crisis of the late 1990s. The Federal Reserve Bank feared a deflationary period after the bursting of the Internet bubble and thus did not counteract the buildup of the housing bubble. At the same time, the banking system underwent an important transformation. The y Markus K. Brunnermeier is the Edwards S. Sanford Professor of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey. His e-mail address is markus@princeton.edu. Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 23, Number 1—Winter 2009—Pages 77–100 traditional banking model, in which the issuing banks hold loans until they are repaid, was replaced by the “originate and distribute” banking model, in which loans are pooled, tranched, and then resold via securitization. The creation of new securities facilitated the large capital inflows from abroad. The first part of the paper describes this trend towards the “originate and distribute” model and how it ultimately led to a decline in lending standards. Financial innovation that had supposedly made the banking system more stable by transferring risk to those most able to bear it led to an unprecedented credit expansion that helped feed the boom in housing prices. The second part of the paper provides an event logbook on the financial market turmoil in 2007–08, ending with the start of the coordinated international bailout in October 2008. The third part explores 那你算我是什么人? 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